At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (929) listing both starting pitchers George Kirby and Slade Cecconi. THE SITUATION: Seattle (14-12) has won four of their last five games — and eight of their last ten contests — after their 6-1 victory against the Diamondbacks in Game One of this series last night. Arizona (12-15) has lost two straight games and six of their last nine contests. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Seattle has won 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also won 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. Kirby gets the ball making his sixth start of the season. In his 31 starts last season, the right-hander was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 2.70 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 15 starts as compared to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in his 16 starts on the road. He got crushed for eight runs in 3 2/3 innings in a start at home against Cleveland back on April 3rd — but he has allowed only two earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his other two starts at Safeco Park this season. The Mariners have won 17 of their 27 games at home when Kirby is on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Arizona continues their ten-game road trip with the ninth game away from home — and they have lost 14 of their last 22 games after playing at least seven straight games on the road. The Diamondbacks have also lost 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog. They counter with Cecconi who gave up only two runs in six innings of work in his first start of the season at San Francisco on Sunday. He is taking the spot of Merrill Kelly in the starting rotation. In 27 innings at the MLB level last year, he had a 0-1 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. But the deeper sabermetrics were not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.35 and 4.58 — and his expected ERA (xERA) that takes into account hard-hit rates and exit velocities (a stat I am going to start privileging) raised to 4.77. He was more effective at home as well where he enjoyed a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in 15 2/3 innings as opposed to his 1.32 WHIP and .262 opponent’s batting average in 11 1/3 innings on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Mariners have won 10 of their last 16 games when priced as the money-line favorite at -110 or higher. 8* MLB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (930) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (929) listing both starting pitchers George Kirby and Slade Cecconi. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (547) and the Los Angeles Lakers (548) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (60-25) looks to close out this series tonight after their 112-105 upset victory on the road against the Lakers as a 1-point underdog on Thursday. Los Angeles (49-38) had won three games in a row to conclude the regular season but now trail 0-3 in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets nailed 48.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort for them in this series. But they have beaten the Lakers in all three games in this series despite allowing them to shoot at least 48.7% of their shots in each game. Denver has played 3 of their 4 games this season Under the Total after allowing three straight opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Despite their shooting success, the Nuggets have not allowed more than 105 points in this series — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in three or more games in a row. Additionally, Denver has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in five days. Furthermore, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total in potential close-out contests. Los Angeles allowed Denver to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. But the Under is still 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The Lakers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first round of the NBA playoffs. 

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (547) and the Los Angeles Lakers (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.                                                                         

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 4/27:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday was with the Vegas Golden Knights with the money-line versus the Dallas Stars. Vegas (47-29-8) returns home with a 2-0 lead in this series after their 3-1 upset victory on the road against the Stars in Game Two on Wednesday. The analytics and the market continue to struggle to properly evaluate this Golden Knights team that is playing with a roster now that was much better than their typical group of players in the regular season. They once again strategically used the injured list to bypass salary cap restrictions — and now Mark Stone is back on the ice and playing at a high level. Vegas played with injuries all season — and they were careful not to push their players knowing that the name of the game is simply reaching the postseason. They also made two major additions to their roster at the trade deadline by acquiring Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifan. The Golden Knights have won 6 of their last 7 games in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after winning on the road by more than one goal. Dallas (52-23-9) earned the number one seed in the Western Conference playoffs — but they would not be the first top seed to get upended in the opening round of the postseason. The Stars have lost 13 of their last 19 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. They have lost all five of their games against Vegas this season and six games overall (after they got eliminated by them in the playoffs last year) — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games playing an opponent that has beaten them three or more times in a row. Take Vegas with the money-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports remains on a 17 of 24 (71%) NBA run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after losing with Cleveland this afternoon! Frank is still on a 26 of 39 (67%) All-Sports run with featured plays — and he enjoys longer-running 32 of 48 (67%) and 85 of 133 (64%) NBA featured play runs! Now Frank furthers his 8 of 12 (67%) NBA Game of the Year/Month mark with his 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month for tonight’s Denver-LA Lakers ATS winner at 8:40 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (548) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (547) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-38) looks to avoid getting swept in this opening-round series after their 112-105 upset loss as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Denver (60-25) has won seven of their last eight games. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles faces a near-impossible task to overcome a 3-0 deficit to the reigning NBA champions. But this one is for pride to avoid getting swept by the Nuggets in two straight postseasons and at least go into the offseason with their 11-game losing streak against them snapped. LeBron James will demand a big effort from his team — and his history demonstrates that he does not take a knee when his team is attempting to avoid a sweep in a playoff series. In those four previous playoff games when his team was down 0-3, James has scored 29.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 8.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and 9.5 Assists-Per-Game in 44 minutes per contest. The Lakers only made 5 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Thursday — expect them to shoot better than 19% from 3-point range. They also allowed the Nuggets to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 105 points. If there is one vulnerability of this Nuggets team (outside their depth), it is that they can get complacent. Becoming a little too dependent on the dopamine rush of digging themselves out of a big deficit tends to be a problem for defending champions — and Denver seems to crave this euphoria when playing this Lakers team. Los Angeles held a double-digit lead once again in Game Three after owning a 59-44 halftime lead in Game Two and enjoying a 49-37 lead midway through the second quarter in Game One. The Nuggets are going to assume they can simply flip the switch once again. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven boards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding four straight opponents by five or more rebounds. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as a favorite of less than 11 points. The 12th time’s the charm for the Lakers tonight. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (548) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 4/27:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday afternoon was with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Orlando Magic. Cleveland (50-35) blew their opportunity to take a commanding 3-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with a 121-83 loss on the road against the Magic as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Cavaliers have not scored more than 96 points in their last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 range. Orlando (48-37) has played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win at home by ten or more points. The Magic have also played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when the Total is set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.                                                                                        

Frank Sawyer remains on a 17 of 23 (74%) NBA run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after settling for a 1-1 split on Friday! Frank is on a 26 of 38 (68%) All-Sports run with featured plays — and he enjoys longer-running 32 of 47 (69%) and 85 of 132 (65%) NBA featured play runs! Now Frank TIPS OFF his Saturday card with the Cleveland-Orlando ATS winner on TNT at 1 PM ET! CA$H-IN Frank’s Saturday Discounted Deal —  IT’S A STEAL!

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (541) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (50-35) had won four of their last five games before their 121-83 loss on the road against the Magic as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Orlando (48-37) had lost five of six games before the victory to now trail in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland may have been overconfident in Game Three after dominating the first two games of this series. They allowed the Magic to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games Even worse, the Cavaliers only made 39.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 48 games. They should play better this afternoon. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by ten or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road by ten or more points. Orlando played their best defensive game in their last 11 contests by holding the Cavaliers to 39.0% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting game in their last nine contests by nailing 51.1% of their shots. After only making 23.6% of their 3s in Games One and Two, Orlando managed to convert on 13 of their 37 shots from behind the arc for a 35.1% shooting mark. Unfortunately for the Magic, Thursday’s performance looks like an outlier for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games this month. Additionally, while Orlando has not allowed more than 96 points in the last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last ten days. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (541) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (962) versus the Kansas City Royals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Detroit (15-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 6-5 victory against the Royals in the second game of their three-game series on Saturday. Kansas City (17-11) had won four games in a row before the loss. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Royals had a 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the seventh inning yesterday — but their bullpen surrounded five runs in that inning to blow that save opportunity. Kansas City has lost 27 of their last 36 games after their bullpen blew a save. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after a one-run loss to an AL Central rival — and they have lost 18 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 32 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range, they have lost 25 of those games. Wacha gets the ball this afternoon looking to build on his 1-2 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in five starts. He has been more effective at home where he has a 1.59 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .244 in two starts as opposed to his 5.29 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in his three starts on the road. Granted, the sample size is still small — but it is consistent with his numbers last season with San Diego. In his 14 starts in the spacious Petco Park, he enjoyed a 2.62 ERA — that mark rose to a 4.14 ERA in his 10 starts on the road. Wacha’s teams have lost 5 of their last 7 road games when he is the starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. Furthermore, while he had a 3.22 ERA in his 24 starts last year, both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.43 and 4.47. I am leaning in to expected ERA (xERA) more this season as I am impressed with Statcast’s incorporation of hard-hit rate and exit velocity — and Wacha’s xERA last season was 4.27. He faces one of the biggest breakout stars in the game in Skubal. The left-hander comes off six shutout innings against Tampa Bay on Monday. He has a 3-0 record this season with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings. He has punched out 35 batters while only issuing five bases-on-balls — and he is striking out 31.2% of the batters he has faced. This start continues the great run he was on last year coming back from a midseason injury. Since the beginning of September through this month, Skubal has a 7-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. Last season, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 15 starts — and those numbers were validated by a 2.77 SIERA and a 2.56 xFIP along with an xERA of 2.30. In his eight starts at home last year, he sported a 1.37 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP and a .171 opponent batting average. This season, Skubal has a 2.56 SIERA and a 2.54 xFIP — and his xERA is 2.13. We can live with regression to those numbers from his current 1.82 ERA. The Tigers have won 6 of their last 8 games at home with Skubal pitching with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. He should thrive once again against this Royals team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .595. 

FINAL TAKE: Manager A.J. Hinch makes sure his team is ready to play against divisional foes as Detroit has won 43 of their last 64 games against AL Central rivals. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (962) versus the Kansas City Royals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tarik Skubal and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.